Timeform's Graeme North assesses Aintree with his timefigure hat on and he feels Dark Raven can win on Saturday.
Aintree Day Three Timefigure Tips
Back Au Fleuron each-way in 2.25 Aintree at 16/1
Back Dark Raven in 3.00 Aintree at 5/1
I found myself wondering yesterday when the last time was that I backed the winner of the Grand National and sadly, I must admit, I couldnât recall exactly when that was.
Thatâs not an admission that the next couple of paragraphs are worth skipping, as hopefully there will be a helpful pointer or two in them if not a definitive selection, but long-distance chases donât lend themselves to timefigure analysis in the manner that races over shorter distances do, and not least in this particular example given it remains, despite having its distance âshortenedâ several years ago, the longest handicap chase in the calendar.
That said, significant changes to the fences in recent years have made them easier to jump, resulting in fewer casualties, so making the race less the unique test it once was when the âAintree factorâ really was a thing. So, which horses feature highly on the clock?
Last yearâs one-two Noble Yeats and Any Second Now are well up there as might be expected, though they must overcome significant rises in the weights having finished 20 lengths clear of the remainder last year. All the same, both arrive in top form, not least Noble Yeats who finished fourth last time out in a career-best 165 timefigure in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where he ran the last half-mile a second faster than anything else except the winner Galopin Des Champs according to Course Track, and was closing that gap in the final furlong.
The sectionals for last yearâs National show that Any Second Now ran the last half-mile over half a second faster than Noble Yeats despite running the last furlong over two lengths or so slower, so it might be heâll be ridden with more of the patience he was in 2021 when third despite some bad interference (he also ran the fastest penultimate furlong that day too according to Course Track).
Last yearâs ninth Escaria Ten has a timefigure in the 2022 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse when just pipped by Any Second Now that theoretically gives him leading claims but his profile since is unconvincing to say the least and Iâve still not forgiven the ride he was given in the 2021 National Hunt Chase.
More interesting is the 2021 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier whose second conceding 8lb to Kemboy in the latest Bobbyjo in a 153 timefigure was a very promising warm-up and stamina is unlikely to be an issue.
The progressive Our Power is right up there with the best on the clock but all his last five wins have come right-handed.
Le Milos was turned over at Kelso last time but thatâs a chase track Harry Skelton finds hard to ride (beaten on a large number of short-priced horses from a fair-sized sample) and his previous win in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury (now 5lb worse off with Corach Rambler who was back in fourth and who himself has a leading time-based chance on his 145 effort in that race and subsequent 144 win in the Ultima at Cheltenham) in a 152 timefigure puts him high up on the shortlist.
Also in that small cohort is Gaillard Du Mesnil and if I had to be prompted for a selection, he would be the one.
He made very hard work of a straightforward task in a messily-run National Hunt Chase but a mark of 155 is far from harsh for a Grade 1-winning chaser (153 timefigure at Leopardstown over Christmas) who also has sufficient speed to mix it with the best over shorter trips at the highest level in Ireland, and the return of Paul Townend in the saddle is a bonus.
Neither of the races that bookend the three Grade 1s, the opening Maghull Novicesâ Chase which looks a cakewalk for Jonbon, nor the Liverpool Hurdle, which brings together again several extremely chaotic formlines, appeal for betting purposes but the middle one of the three, the Mersey Novicesâ Hurdle, in which Hermes Allen is on a retrieval mission after his Ballymore flop, does.
Anyone who reads my weekly Watch And Learn column will be aware Iâve been fairly cool on the prospects on Hermes Allen for a while.
He might have been followed home by several subsequent winners in the Challow but most of those won races subsequently they were entitled to win and his Newbury win in what wasnât a spectacular time saw him racing on what was probably the favoured part of the track.
His tall reputation has ensured he can still command favouritism for this but its not easy to forget how much better the Irish novice hurdlers were than the British ones at Cheltenham (first eight home in the Supreme, first four in the Ballymore) and itâs one who ran in the former race, DARK RAVEN, who interests me most here.
The winner of a 22-runner maiden at Leopardstown at Christmas, he has since finished third in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice (formerly the Brave Inca) at the Dublin Racing Festival when having Irish Point well behind and then sixth to Marine Nationale in the Supreme.
The strength of that form as I see it is way above any of his rivals including Hermes Allen can boast in this contest, timefigures of 137 and 142 are easily the best in the field and the step up to two and a half miles promises to unlock further improvement as it did with his stable-companion Impaire Et passe in the Ballymore.
He should be clear favourite in my opinion and the 9/2 (5/1 in places) strikes me as a good bet.
With the concluding bumper unattractive and the handicap preceding the National hard to find a timing edge in, Iâll turn my attention to the three-mile handicap hurdle for my other bet and put forward AU FLEURON who regular readers will remember I selected in the Martin Pipe in my final Cheltenham timefigure preview.
Hopefully he wonât follow the fate of another horse from that same column I also stayed faithful to this week, A Plus Tard, who sadly looks now to have an issue of some sort, as Iâm expecting plenty of upside with Au Fleuron stepped up to three miles for the first time.
The winner of a point-to-point and bumper, he made his hurdle debut over two and a half miles but despite a pedigree chock full of stamina other than two runs in the Martin Pipe he has been kept to shorter distances (if only slightly on a couple of occasions) since.
He caught my eye staying on well from midfield in a handicap at Punchestown on the final day of 2022 and then did so again in the Martin Pipe when running the final furlong faster than all bar the winner Iroko.
Blinkers replace cheekpieces and, able to run effectively off a 4lb lower mark than at Cheltenham, he looks well worth each-way support at 16/1.
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FAQs
What are the tips for the Grand National? âș
- Look at horses which have winning form over the Grand National fences.
- Look at horses with good recent form in general.
- Look for horses from a trainer who has a good record in the race.
- Look for horses with a good record at Aintree.
- Look for horses that are well weighted.
Noble Yeats, winner last year, is among the Grand National 2023 favourites, and Any Second Now, top three in both the 2021 and 2022 races, also features strongly in the 2023 Grand National betting odds. However it's Corach Rambler that looks set to head to Aintree as the 2023 Grand National favourite.
Who was the shortest price winner of the Grand National? âș18 â In 2018 Tiger Roll won the first of his two Grand Nationals. The Covid-19 pandemic denied him the chance to win a third. 19 â In 1919 the shortest-priced winner of the race Poethlyn (11-4) won.
Who is the best Grand National tipster? âș- James Dooley. The best chance of winning the 2023 Grand National race is Delta Work. ...
- Ruby Walsh. The best bet to win the Aintree Grand National is Noble Yeats. ...
- Kevin Blake. ...
- David Dooley. ...
- Horse Racing Weights. ...
- Jockey Form. ...
- Trainer Form. ...
- Horse Form Guide.
The majority of wagers placed on the Grand National are 'Each-Way Bets'. This popular bet type guarantees a payout if your horse wins (1st) or finishes in 2nd, 3rd, 4th â and even 5th place counts with some bookmakers!
Who is favourite to win the Grand National 2023? âșCorach Rambler, the 8-1 favourite, came home an impressive winner of the 175th Randox Grand National to give trainer Lucinda Russell and jockey Derek Fox a second win in the world's greatest race in six years at Aintree on Saturday. The same combination won with One For Arthur in 2017.
Who is the best jockey in the Grand National? âșIF you're looking for the best jockey to back in the Grand National then science suggests Rachael Blackmore is head and shoulders above the rest.
What is the best age horse to win the Grand National? âșHowever, a pattern is starting to emerge that the event is becoming a younger horse's race. Two of the last three races have been the slowest in recent memory, but it still did not let in the older runners. Until proven otherwise, selecting a horse either aged eight or nine appears to be the way to go.
How do you pick a good horse for Grand National? âșMaking Your Choice
To pick your winner, examine the list of runners and cross off any horse carrying more than 11 stone. Then eliminate those older than 12 and younger than 9. The race does throw up the occasional winner at long odds but not often so cross of any horse with odds longer than 33-1.
Crisp Probably the best grand national runner not to have won the race, Crisp started his racing in Australia and after winning all he could there he was sent to England to run in the Gold Cup but due to one thing and another it was thought that he would not ' get the trip ' and so he was entered in the two mile ...
What is the biggest outsider to win the Grand National? âș
1. Tipperary Tim â 100/1. One of the top underdogs in the history of the Grand National can also claim one of the best stories in the history of the race, thanks to some prophetic words of encouragement prior to the start of the race.
Who is the most famous Grand National winner? âșRegarded as one of the greatest racehorses of all time, Red Rum dominated the Grand National in the 1970's. Winning the race three times, finishing second in the intervening years (1975 and 1976) and never having fallen in over 100 races, Red Rum is considered by many as the saviour of The Grand National.
Who is the fastest horse in the Grand National? âșThe fastest ever time is the 8 minutes 47.8 seconds Mr Frisk recorded in taking victory in 1990. The slowest time is the 14m 53s it took Lottery to win the first National in 1839.
Should I bet each way on Grand National? âșThe general rule with Grand National each way betting is that because the place part of an each-way bet is ÂŒ of the winning odds, the benchmark price to bet each-way is around 4/1 or higher. Anything lower than 4/1 and, unless the horse wins, you'll actually return a loss on your overall stake.
Who is the best free football tipster? âșPredictZ is hailed by many as the best and most reliable football prediction site in the world. They provide football tips, free analysis, football form and statistics, latest results, league tables, and many more. They cover all of the major football leagues but mostly focus on the English Premier League.
Who is the best free racing tipster? âș- Hugh Taylor. Since he started to prove his tips on At The Races in 2009, Hugh Taylor has proved himself to be one of the best horse racing tipsters in the business. ...
- Tony Calvin. ...
- Value Bet. ...
- Betting Gods.
The simplest way to bet is to pick a horse either to win or each way. If your selection wins, you will get the amount you put on - called your 'stake' - back as well as any profit.
What is the best bet type for horses? âșThe safest bet in horse racing is an each-way single bet. A single bet means you do not need multiple horses for you to receive a return for your bet.
Is it better to bet each-way? âșBe very wary of betting each-way in big, fields. In general, the punter has an advantage over the each-way bookmaker in fields 'Of eight to 12 runners if he backs each-way horses quoted at 7/1 or shorter for the win. The shorter the win price, the greater the advantage for a place.
What time is the Grand National 2023 tips? âșThe Grand National will take place at Aintree Racecourse, near Liverpool, starting at 5.15pm BST on Saturday 15 April. It is the penultimate race of the festival, with the last race starting at 6.20pm BST.
Who is the only horse to win 3 Grand Nationals? âș
Red Rum, (foaled 1965), steeplechase horse who won the Grand National at Aintree, England, an unprecedented three times, in 1973, 1974, and 1977. Bought as a crippled seven-year-old, he was reconditioned by his trainer Ginger McCain, who ran him on the sand and in the sea.
Which bookies are paying 6 places? âș| Bookmaker | Each Way Terms | Odds & Offers |
|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 6 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds | Further Details |
| William Hill | 6 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds | Further Details |
| bet365 | 6 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds | Further Details |
| Ladbrokes | 6 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds | Further Details |
This year's race once again has a prize pool of ÂŁ1 million, having previously been reduced during the Covid pandemic. That means that this year's winner will pocket over half the winnings: a huge ÂŁ561,300.
Who is the best horse jockey right now? âș| # | Name | Starts |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 345 |
| 2 | Luis Saez | 331 |
| 3 | Junior Alvarado | 196 |
| 4 | Tyler Gaffalione | 297 |
The most wins of the Grand National by a jockey is five and was achieved by George Stevens (United Kingdom) in 1856, 1863-64 and 1869-70.
What is the easiest bet to win in horse racing? âșâStraightâ bets are your least complicated option and they're the safest. These involve wagering that your horse will win, place or show, meaning that he'll come in first, second or third, respectively. If you wager on him to win and he does indeed win, so do you.
What is the easiest horse bet to win? âșThe easiest wager in horse racing, a show bet pays off if your horse finishes first, second, or third. Payoffs are usually smaller than those generated by win or place bets. You win the wager if your horse finishes first, second, or third.
What is the most profitable way to bet on horses? âșThe 80/20 System
It is a strategy for earning from horses through wagering on them to win and get a place on the betting exchange. If you want to use this horse race betting strategy, you will need to bet 20% on the horse that will win the race and 80% on the same horse to finish with a place.
As you can see, nine-year-olds dominate the field here. There are almost double the amount of nine-year-old Grand National winners as any other age. The last nine-year-old to claim victory at Aintree was Tiger Roll in 2019 â a triumph that solidified the horse's legendary status.
Do Grey Horses win the Grand National? âșOnly three grey horses have won the Grand National - most recently Neptune Collonges in 2012 - but Gaillard Du Mesnil has been in fine form. This is certainly one for the shortlist. If you're after an outsider and a grey, then look no further than Coko Beach - one of six horses in the race for trainer Gordon Elliott.
What is the best horse racing handicapping system? âș
Betmix is the best handicapping software on the market, easy to use and proven to find more winners. Using the powerful artificial intelligence system in the MixMaker handicapping software, you can have the computer handicap races for you and reveal the most accurate settings for past races.
How old is the average horse in the Grand National? âșNine years is the most common age of Grand National winners, accounting for 46 of the previous victors. The weights carried by previous Grand National winners have ranged from 10 stone 1 pound to 12 stone, with the most common weight set at 10 stone 7 pounds â the handicap of 13 of the previous winners.
What race horse never won? âșZippy Chippy won the hearts of many fans. Zippy Chippy was a racehorse but he never won a single race. In his 100 races, he came close a few times, but he just never understood why all the other horses were in such a rush, reported CBS News.
What are the longest odds a horse has won at? âșThe longest odds for a winning horse at the Grand National is 100/1 and was achieved by Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) and Mon Mome (2009).
What horse number wins the most? âșThe most successful post position in history is the number five, which has produced four winners since 2000 and 11 percent of all winners. Other relatively successful post positions include the number ten (10.7% winners) and the number 15 with 10.2%.
How often does the least favorite horse win? âșFirst, let's give you the short answer. The favourite usually wins a horse racing around 30-35% of the time. And if you were wondering, the second favourite usually wins around 18-21% of the time. As you might expect, going down the market leads to a lower winning percentage.
What is the average winning distance in the Grand National? âșAfter racing over 4 miles 2f and jumping 30 obstacles it is an amazing Grand National stat that the average winning distance is 3 lengths. Many would predict long-distance winning margins in the Grand National but the handicapper has done a great job to minimise the grand national winning distances.
What is the least amount of horses to finish the Grand National? âșThe smallest number of finishers ever in the Grand National was just two, in 1928, and just one of them, 100/1 outsider Tipperary Tim, completed the course unscathed.
Has a female horse won the Grand National? âșRANDOX GRAND NATIONAL FESTIVAL ROUND-UP: HISTORIC RACHAEL BLACKMORE VICTORY.
Which horse has won the most champion hurdles? âș...
Most successful horse (3 wins):
- Hatton's Grace â 1949, 1950, 1951.
- Sir Ken â 1952, 1953, 1954.
- Persian War â 1968, 1969, 1970.
- See You Then â 1985, 1986, 1987.
- Istabraq â 1998, 1999, 2000.
Who was the first person to win the Grand National? âș
The history of the Randox Grand National can be traced back to the early 1800's. In February 1839, Lottery became the first winner of the Grand Liverpool Steeplechase, the race that would become known as the Grand National. Horses had to jump a stone wall, cross a stretch of ploughed land and finish over two hurdles.
What's the fastest horses ever gone? âșThis is a Guinness World Record was achieved by a horse called Winning Brew. She was trained by Francis Vitale in the United States. The race was recorded at the Penn National Race Course, Grantville, Pennsylvania, United States. Winning Brew covered the quarter-mile (402 metres) in 20.57 seconds.
What was the fastest horse ever recorded? âș- Did you know that the highest recorded race speed for a Thoroughbred was set at Penn National Race Course in Grantville, PA on May 14, 2008?
- According to the Guiness Book of World Records, this feat was set by the 2-year old filly Winning Brew â clocking a speed of 43.97 mph (70.76 km/h).
Thoroughbred Winning Brew holds the Guinness world record for the fastest speed from the starting gate for a Thoroughbred racehorse, at 70.76 km/h (43.97 mph) over two furlongs, although Quarter Horses attain higher speeds over shorter distances than Thoroughbreds.
Who is tipped to win the Grand National 2023? âșThe Grand National result for 2023 has been predicted by AI bot ChatGPT - with jockey Rachael Blackmore tipped to be victorious once again.
Which horse is Favourite for Grand National 2023? âșCorach Rambler, the 8-1 favourite, came home an impressive winner of the 175th Randox Grand National to give trainer Lucinda Russell and jockey Derek Fox a second win in the world's greatest race in six years at Aintree on Saturday. The same combination won with One For Arthur in 2017.
Who has the worst odds in the Grand National? âș- Tipperary Tim â 100/1. ...
- Gregalach â 100/1. ...
- Caughoo â 100/1. ...
- Foinavon â 100/1. ...
- Mon Mome â 100/1.
The longest odds for a winning horse at the Grand National is 100/1 and was achieved by Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) and Mon Mome (2009).
What is the best way to gamble with $100? âș- Play Lower Volatility Games. ...
- Find a Lower Minimum Bet. ...
- Reduce Your Lines. ...
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- Play Games With Lengthy Bonuses. ...
- Let the Game Do Its Thing. ...
- Walk Around More.
The answer may surprise you. According to data from Equibase, over the past ten years, horses in post position number five have won the most races. In fact, horses in post five have won almost 13% of all races run during that period. That's significantly higher than any other post position.
What is the best horse to choose? âș
- Breed Characteristics.
- American Quarter Horse.
- Arabian.
- Thoroughbred.
- American Paint.
- Morgan.
- Kentucky Mountain Saddle Horse.
- Missouri Fox Trotter Horse.
In general, the punter has an advantage over the each-way bookmaker in fields 'Of eight to 12 runners if he backs each-way horses quoted at 7/1 or shorter for the win. The shorter the win price, the greater the advantage for a place. Before you bet each-way, do your sums.
Is it best to bet each-way on horses? âșOpt for an Each Way Bet
The place part of the bet means your horse must finish within a specified number of places, typically the first 4 or 5. This type of bet can offer more chances of winning, albeit at a slightly reduced payout.
Each-way fractions: The odds on the place part of your each-way bet are a fraction of the win odds, because your selection has a greater chance of placing than winning.